Athletic Carpi 2-2 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
50%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.72
2-3 Goals
32%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.3
6+ Goals
11%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 40% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
23%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
50%
Away Win
52%
-1.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.2pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 56%
+58% / +58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.17
+109% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
260 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 5.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Carpi
2-2
AWAY Ascoli
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Athletic Carpi vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Carpi and Ascoli shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ascoli at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Carpi had 49% of the ball to Ascoli's 51%, shots finished 12-19.

What was the final score of Athletic Carpi vs Ascoli?

Athletic Carpi 2-2 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie C on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Carpi vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Athletic Carpi 26%, draw 24%, Ascoli 50%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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