Triestina 2-3 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Triestina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.44/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/0.85
+0% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +44%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Triestina
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lumezzane
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
18.02.2024 Lumezzane Lumezzane 3-0 HT 1-0 Triestina Triestina İTC
14.10.2023 Triestina Triestina 2-1 HT 0-0 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Triestina
2-3
AWAY Lumezzane
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Triestina vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lumezzane squeezed past Triestina 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Triestina at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Triestina had 58% of the ball to Lumezzane's 42%, shots finished 13-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Triestina and 2.00 for Lumezzane.

What was the final score of Triestina vs Lumezzane?

Triestina 2-3 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Triestina vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a Triestina win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Triestina 42%, draw 28%, Lumezzane 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Triestina) ✗ Under 2.5
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