Werder Bremen 1-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 31 Jan 2025

Werder Bremen
1-0 HT 1-0
Mainz 05
📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.23
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
11.9
X/1
13%
5.46
X/2
15%
6.6
X/X
16%
4.73
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
11%
4.35
2/X
5%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.61/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.79
+13% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
279 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 73%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.3 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.47 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
349 Passes 294
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
03.02.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
02.09.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
08.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
15.10.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
21.04.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Werder Bremen 1-0 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
1-0
AWAY Mainz 05
2.67 xG 1.27
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
221 Passes 436
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen nicked a narrow win over Mainz 05 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Werder Bremen found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 37% of the ball to Mainz 05's 63%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 2.67 to 1.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Werder Bremen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.00 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05?

Werder Bremen 1-0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 40%, draw 27%, Mainz 05 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✗ BTTS Yes
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