Montpellier 0-2 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 31 Jan 2025

Montpellier
0-2 HT 0-1
Lens
📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 28% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.3
1/2
8%
22.55
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
11%
8.5
X/2
21%
4.55
X/X
13%
5.15
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.39
2/X
6%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 55%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.33/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.12
-12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +33%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 84%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
19.8 Crosses 20.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Montpellier vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Lens
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 2.13
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
306 Passes 478
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.12.2024 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
19.05.2024 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
08.12.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
25.02.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
15.10.2022 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
20.04.2022 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Montpellier 0-2 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
0-2
AWAY Lens
0.83 xG 2.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
346 Passes 365
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens saw off Montpellier 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Montpellier had 49% of the ball to Lens's 51%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 0.83 to 2.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Montpellier and 1.33 for Lens.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Lens?

Montpellier 0-2 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 27%, draw 25%, Lens 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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