Lens 2-2 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
25%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.63
Over 2.5
51%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
6.35
2-3 Goals
42%
2.11
4-5 Goals
23%
2.53
6+ Goals
11%
5.38
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.35 — our 24% vs market 11.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-17.9pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.1pp
25%
Away Win
12%
+12.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 15%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.95/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.22
-3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
471 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
23.2 Crosses 14.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Montpellier
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.32 xG 1.05
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
421 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
25.02.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
15.10.2022 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
20.04.2022 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
17.10.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
30.01.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
2-2
AWAY Montpellier
5.26 xG 0.82
55% Ball Possession 45%
27 Total Shots 11
13 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 0
482 Passes 373
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
49 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lens vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens and Montpellier shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lens had 55% of the ball to Montpellier's 45%, shots finished 27-11, expected goals 5.26 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lens and 0.50 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Lens vs Montpellier?

Lens 2-2 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lens 53%, draw 22%, Montpellier 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lens), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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