Le Havre 1-2 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 May 2024

Le Havre
1-2 HT 0-0
Marsilya
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Le Havre vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.87
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.89
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
28%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.96
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
11%
9.48
X/2
13%
4.18
X/X
7%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.21
2/X
9%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+5.7pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.4pp
51%
Away Win
53%
-2.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Le Havre v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 57%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
1.43/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.01
-1% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 83%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
17.9 Crosses 21.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Le Havre vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Marsilya
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.18 xG 2.85
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
331 Passes 653
84% Pass Accuracy 92%
7 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 3-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
17.01.2009 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
23.08.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
08.01.2006 Marsilya Marsilya 4-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FRK
05.02.2003 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
21.09.2002 Le Havre Le Havre 1-3 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Le Havre 1-2 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
1-2
AWAY Marsilya
1.80 xG 1.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
339 Passes 457
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya nicked a narrow win over Le Havre 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Le Havre had 44% of the ball to Marsilya's 56%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 1.80 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Le Havre and 2.50 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Marsilya?

Le Havre 1-2 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 28%, draw 21%, Marsilya 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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