Lille 2-2 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 May 2024

Lille
2-2 HT 0-1
Nice
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lille vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.75
X/1
14%
3.71
X/2
8%
12.0
X/X
12%
6.1
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
10%
9.22
2/X
7%
17.45
Value flag · 1/X at 16.75 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-13.1pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +29%
2.00/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.51
-5% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +38%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
433 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.6 Crosses 11.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lille vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nice
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
466 Passes 344
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.08.2023 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
29.01.2023 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
31.08.2022 Lille Lille 1-2 HT 1-2 Nice Nice FR1
14.05.2022 Nice Nice 1-3 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
14.08.2021 Lille Lille 0-4 HT 0-3 Nice Nice FR1
01.05.2021 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1

Lille 2-2 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
2-2
AWAY Nice
1.22 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
479 Passes 380
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lille vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille and Nice couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lille at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lille had 55% of the ball to Nice's 45%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.22 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lille and 1.50 for Nice.

What was the final score of Lille vs Nice?

Lille 2-2 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lille 50%, draw 27%, Nice 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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