Toulouse 0-3 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 May 2024

Toulouse
0-3 HT 0-0
Brest
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Toulouse vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 25% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.13
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
14%
6.54
X/2
18%
5.29
X/X
14%
5.2
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
13%
3.07
2/X
5%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.3pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 45%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.29/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.84
+4% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +92%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
17.3 Crosses 23.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Toulouse vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Brest
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.29 xG 1.69
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
397 Passes 300
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
02.04.2023 Brest Brest 3-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
15.01.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
11.01.2020 Toulouse Toulouse 2-5 HT 2-1 Brest Brest FR1
10.08.2019 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
09.03.2013 Brest Brest 0-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1

Toulouse 0-3 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
0-3
AWAY Brest
0.88 xG 1.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
409 Passes 380
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest ran out comfortable winners over Toulouse 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Brest found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Toulouse had 52% of the ball to Brest's 48%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.88 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toulouse and 1.83 for Brest.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Brest?

Toulouse 0-3 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 35%, draw 28%, Brest 37%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brest) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brest)
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