Katowice 1-0 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.08
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.3
X/1
17%
5.27
X/2
11%
6.69
X/X
13%
4.94
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
15%
4.46
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 1/X at 12.3 — our 10% vs market 5.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 34%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.49/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.19
-30% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
29.1 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 1.22
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
236 Passes 472
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 28
27.07.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL
14.04.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-2 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
1-0
AWAY Stal Mielec
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice edged past Stal Mielec 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Katowice made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Katowice had 45% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 55%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Katowice and 1.00 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Stal Mielec?

Katowice 1-0 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Katowice 39%, draw 29%, Stal Mielec 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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