Lech Poznan 4-1 Widzew Lodz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.67
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.99 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.2
X/1
20%
3.96
X/2
7%
11.6
X/X
8%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.25
2/2
9%
9.46
2/X
8%
18.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-7.7pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.4pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -7%
1.93/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.81
+5% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
425 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
23.2 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Widzew Lodz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.35 xG 1.57
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
471 Passes 282
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.07.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-1 HT 2-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.05.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-1 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
26.11.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-3 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
19.03.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-2 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
04.09.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
22.06.2019 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
4-1
AWAY Widzew Lodz
1.52 xG 1.02
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
463 Passes 260
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
46 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Widzew Lodz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan swept aside Widzew Lodz 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 61% of the ball to Widzew Lodz's 39%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.52 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.17 for Widzew Lodz.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Widzew Lodz?

Lech Poznan 4-1 Widzew Lodz in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Widzew Lodz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 55%, draw 22%, Widzew Lodz 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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