Widzew Lodz 2-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Jul 2024

Widzew Lodz
2-1 HT 2-1
Lech Poznan
📅27/07/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.52
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 30% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.16
1/2
12%
26.0
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
13%
6.05
X/2
12%
5.06
X/X
15%
4.83
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
14%
3.24
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Widzew Lodz v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 45%
-14% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.36/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.26
+0% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
27.6 Crosses 16.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Widzew Lodz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.65 xG 1.38
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
295 Passes 469
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-1 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
26.11.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-3 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
19.03.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-2 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
04.09.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
22.06.2019 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz HAZ
10.03.2014 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-2 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Widzew Lodz 2-1 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Widzew Lodz
2-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.24 xG 1.20
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
230 Passes 482
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 40
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Widzew Lodz squeezed past Lech Poznan 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Widzew Lodz made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Widzew Lodz had 35% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 65%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.24 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Widzew Lodz and 1.83 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznan?

Widzew Lodz 2-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Widzew Lodz vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Widzew Lodz 33%, draw 29%, Lech Poznan 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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