Radomiak Radom 2-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Jul 2024

Radomiak Radom
2-3 HT 0-2
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅27/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
45%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.93
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.26
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
10%
6.44
X/2
13%
5.15
X/X
6%
4.94
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
24%
3.1
2/X
8%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
45%
Away Win
41%
+3.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Radomiak Radom v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Radomiak Radom EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 45%
-20% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +16%
1.33/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.49
-16% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / -12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
19.3 Crosses 13.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Radomiak Radom
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
296 Passes 273
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 0-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
17.09.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 HT 2-2 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
20.02.2023 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
06.08.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
11.04.2022 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
18.10.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-1 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL

Radomiak Radom 2-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Radomiak Radom
2-3
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.27 xG 1.88
48% Ball Possession 52%
26 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
313 Passes 344
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
42 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok nicked a narrow win over Radomiak Radom 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Radomiak Radom had 48% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 52%, shots finished 26-10, expected goals 2.27 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Radomiak Radom 2-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Radomiak Radom 30%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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