Paris FC 2-2 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 31 Jan 2026

Paris FC
2-2 HT 0-1
Marsilya
📅31/01/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Paris FC vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
53%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.84
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.72
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.25
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
8%
8.94
X/2
17%
4.48
X/X
6%
5.5
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
28%
2.31
2/X
9%
13.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.25 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+2.6pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
53%
Away Win
53%
+0.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paris FC v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paris FC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 57%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
0.54/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.02
+34% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +13%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 82%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
24.0 Crosses 20.2
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Paris FC vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paris FC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Marsilya
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
1.09 xG 2.83
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
333 Passes 539
88% Pass Accuracy 91%
9 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.08.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 5-2 HT 2-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR1

Paris FC 2-2 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paris FC
2-2
AWAY Marsilya
1.45 xG 2.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
429 Passes 397
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paris FC vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC and Marsilya shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Paris FC had 52% of the ball to Marsilya's 48%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 1.45 to 2.63.

What was the final score of Paris FC vs Marsilya?

Paris FC 2-2 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paris FC vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Paris FC 26%, draw 21%, Marsilya 53%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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