Caernarfon Town 4-1 Colwyn Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Welsh Cup, 31 Jan 2026

📅31/01/2026 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.18
Over 2.5
60%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.56
No
34%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
42%
-2.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
58%
+2.2pp
66%
BTTS Yes
60%
+5.7pp
34%
BTTS No
40%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Colwyn Bay
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 2
27.12.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
04.10.2025 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
01.08.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GALLK
31.12.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
13.08.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 0-4 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caernarfon Town
4-1
AWAY Colwyn Bay
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town swept aside Colwyn Bay 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Caernarfon Town made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (66%) came in.

On the day, Caernarfon Town had 47% of the ball to Colwyn Bay's 53%, shots finished 10-18.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Caernarfon Town and 0.80 for Colwyn Bay.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?

Caernarfon Town 4-1 Colwyn Bay in the Wales - Welsh Cup on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 39%, draw 27%, Colwyn Bay 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caernarfon Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GALWK More Wales - Welsh Cup
31 Jan 2026
17:00 Bangor 1876 vs Caerau (Ely) Analysis →
17:00 Flint Town United vs Trearddur Bay Analysis →
17:00 Y Rhyl 1879 vs Barry Town Analysis →