Colwyn Bay 1-0 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

Colwyn Bay
1-0 HT 1-0
Caernarfon Town
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2025/2026

Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
56%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
5%
X/2
25%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
31%
-11.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
55%
Away Win
43%
+12.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.3pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Colwyn Bay v Caernarfon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 48%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +13%
0.61/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/1.30
-48% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colwyn Bay
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
01.08.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GALLK
31.12.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
13.08.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 0-4 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colwyn Bay edged past Caernarfon Town 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. Caernarfon Town carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Colwyn Bay and 3.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?

Colwyn Bay 1-0 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Colwyn Bay 20%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 55%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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