Maroons 1-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 31 Jan 2026

📅31/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
11%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.29
No
52%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
4%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
68%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.1pp
11%
Away Win
11%
-0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.2pp
52%
BTTS No
60%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maroons EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 14%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.74/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.01
-19% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maroons
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.12.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-3 HT 0-1 Maroons Maroons UGA
05.04.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 Maroons Maroons UGA
02.12.2023 Maroons Maroons 1-0 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maroons
1-1
AWAY Mbarara City
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maroons vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maroons and Mbarara City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Maroons carried 64% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Maroons had 59% of the ball to Mbarara City's 41%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Maroons had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Maroons and 0.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of Maroons vs Mbarara City?

Maroons 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maroons vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maroons win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Maroons 64%, draw 25%, Mbarara City 11%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Maroons), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maroons) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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