Real Oviedo 2-1 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.88
No
62%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.81
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 32% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.83
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.15
X/1
23%
3.64
X/2
9%
12.75
X/X
8%
5.9
2/1
5%
22.7
2/2
11%
10.15
2/X
5%
18.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
63%
-4.3pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.0pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.8pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Oviedo EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.47/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.56
-5% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
25.8 Crosses 11.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Oviedo
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Villarreal II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.18 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
307 Passes 377
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 13
33 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
28.01.2023 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 0-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
02.11.2022 Villarreal II Villarreal II 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Oviedo
2-1
AWAY Villarreal II
1.78 xG 1.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
369 Passes 349
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Oviedo vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Oviedo squeezed past Villarreal II 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Oviedo as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Oviedo had 51% of the ball to Villarreal II's 49%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.78 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Villarreal II led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Real Oviedo and 1.33 for Villarreal II.

What was the final score of Real Oviedo vs Villarreal II?

Real Oviedo 2-1 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Oviedo vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Oviedo win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Real Oviedo 59%, draw 17%, Villarreal II 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Oviedo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Oviedo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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