Augsburg 1-1 Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 31 Mar 2024

Augsburg
1-1 HT 1-1
Köln
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.38
2-3 Goals
45%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.95
6+ Goals
12%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.11
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.55
X/1
9%
4.09
X/2
11%
9.78
X/X
12%
5.84
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.1
2/2
10%
6.98
2/X
5%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.3pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Köln — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.08/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.66
-24% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
418 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 71%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.1 Crosses 19.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Augsburg vs Köln Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Köln
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.41 xG 1.76
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 342
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
08.04.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Köln Köln AL1
16.10.2022 Köln Köln 3-2 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
30.04.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-4 HT 0-2 Köln Köln AL1
10.12.2021 Köln Köln 0-2 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
23.04.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 2-3 HT 0-3 Köln Köln AL1

Augsburg 1-1 Köln — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-1
AWAY Köln
2.22 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
25 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 6
322 Passes 242
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
51 Box Touches 13
44 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg and Köln shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Augsburg at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Augsburg had 56% of the ball to Köln's 44%, shots finished 25-12, expected goals 2.22 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Köln led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Augsburg and 2.33 for Köln.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Köln?

Augsburg 1-1 Köln in the Germany - Bundesliga on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 49%, draw 25%, Köln 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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