Stuttgart 3-3 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 31 Mar 2024

Stuttgart
3-3 HT 1-0
Heidenheim
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Stuttgart vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.74
Over 2.5
59%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.47
2-3 Goals
41%
2.13
4-5 Goals
29%
2.51
6+ Goals
11%
5.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.45
X/1
24%
3.71
X/2
8%
17.85
X/X
8%
8.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.7
2/2
4%
12.2
2/X
6%
20.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 12% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
70%
-7.7pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.7pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+4.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
33%
+7.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
67%
-7.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stuttgart v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.26/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/2.18
-16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +21%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
469 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
20.6 Crosses 15.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Stuttgart vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.93 xG 1.29
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
464 Passes 217
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
30 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
29.01.2020 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
04.08.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-2 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
22.07.2017 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart HAZ
17.02.2017 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
09.09.2016 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-2 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2

Stuttgart 3-3 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart
3-3
AWAY Heidenheim
3.04 xG 1.32
73% Ball Possession 27%
20 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
705 Passes 183
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
35 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Stuttgart vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart and Heidenheim shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Stuttgart carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stuttgart had 73% of the ball to Heidenheim's 27%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 3.04 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stuttgart and 1.50 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Stuttgart vs Heidenheim?

Stuttgart 3-3 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart 63%, draw 20%, Heidenheim 17%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stuttgart) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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