Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 31 Mar 2024

Arminia Bielefeld
2-0 HT 2-0
MSV Duisburg
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.78
2-3 Goals
46%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 24% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.58
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
20%
4.54
X/2
10%
7.79
X/X
9%
4.94
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
16%
5.51
2/X
10%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arminia Bielefeld v MSV Duisburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.21/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.64
-28% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
477 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
– Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9

Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2W-2D-2L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.16 xG 0.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 Passes 366
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-1 HT 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
02.09.2020 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-2 HT 1-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg HAZ
29.04.2019 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
23.11.2018 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
31.10.2018 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-3 HT 0-3 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AFK
10.02.2018 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2

Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 MSV Duisburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2-0
AWAY MSV Duisburg
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld got the better of MSV Duisburg 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arminia Bielefeld as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 57% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 43%, shots finished 17-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.67 for MSV Duisburg.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg?

Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 43%, draw 25%, MSV Duisburg 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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