Melbourne Victory 2-1 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
28%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.96
Over 2.5
65%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.97
2-3 Goals
39%
2.19
4-5 Goals
25%
2.46
6+ Goals
19%
4.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1.6
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.75
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.83
X/2
10%
15.6
X/X
6%
8.58
2/1
8%
18.55
2/2
14%
10.25
2/X
6%
18.5
Value flag · X/1 at 3.83 — our 29% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
68%
-15.1pp
19%
Draw
17%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
14%
+13.5pp
35%
Under 2.5
30%
+4.6pp
65%
Over 2.5
70%
-4.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.6pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
2.14/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.08
-10% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
424 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
38.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
22.8 Crosses 17.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Perth Glory
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 0.90
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
419 Passes 361
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.01.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
04.10.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-4 HT 0-3 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory HAZ
09.04.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
21.01.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
06.04.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.12.2021 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-3 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
2-1
AWAY Perth Glory
1.33 xG 1.63
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 5
525 Passes 340
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory squeezed past Perth Glory 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 59% of the ball to Perth Glory's 41%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.33 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.33 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory?

Melbourne Victory 2-1 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 53%, draw 19%, Perth Glory 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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