Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 31 Mar 2024

Wellington Phoenix
1-0 HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
18%
5.15
X/2
10%
6.72
X/X
9%
5.12
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
15%
4.34
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 6% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 34%
+17% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.65/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.65
+30% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
18.4 Crosses 17.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.03 xG 1.47
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
460 Passes 438
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
04.11.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 5-2 HT 2-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
16.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
14.01.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-1 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
30.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-3 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
12.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-1 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1-0
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.46 xG 1.52
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 9
423 Passes 484
89% Pass Accuracy 91%
17 Box Touches 45
11 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix edged past Brisbane Roar 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Wellington Phoenix as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 46% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 54%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.46 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.17 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar?

Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 46%, draw 23%, Brisbane Roar 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
31 Mar 2024
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