Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 31 Mar 2024

Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1 HT 0-1
Krasnodar
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krasnodar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.72
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
15%
5.43
X/2
15%
5.52
X/X
14%
4.42
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
14%
3.82
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.4pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Krasnodar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 39%
+16% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.42/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.24
-9% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
289 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 74%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
14.0 Crosses 15.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krasnodar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.01 xG 1.45
45% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
209 Passes 338
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
18.03.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 HT 0-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
23.11.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
14.09.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 1-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
06.08.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
04.05.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Krasnodar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-1
AWAY Krasnodar
1.39 xG 1.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
356 Passes 307
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow and Krasnodar couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 53% of the ball to Krasnodar's 47%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 1.39 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.67 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krasnodar?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 36%, draw 30%, Krasnodar 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5
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