El Nacional 0-1 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 25%
-13% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.62/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.39
-3% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.0 Crosses 15.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Orense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
250 Passes 235
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Orense Orense EKV1
04.05.2024 Orense Orense 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
21.10.2023 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
13.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 3-0 Orense Orense EKV1
20.12.2020 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.09.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-2 HT 1-2 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
0-1
AWAY Orense
0.52 xG 1.08
63% Ball Possession 37%
7 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
370 Passes 201
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 6
31 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense nicked a narrow win over El Nacional 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was El Nacional at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, El Nacional had 63% of the ball to Orense's 37%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.52 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Orense.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Orense?

El Nacional 0-1 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 46%, draw 27%, Orense 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (El Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →