Paris FC 4-2 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.02
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 28% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.8
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
16.15
X/1
18%
4.07
X/2
6%
13.1
X/X
10%
6.24
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
11%
10.75
2/X
7%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-11.3pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.5pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paris FC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 19%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -26%
1.63/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.56
+1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.4 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paris FC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Caen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
480 Passes 327
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Caen Caen 0-2 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
09.03.2024 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
05.08.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
15.04.2023 Caen Caen 3-1 HT 2-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
27.08.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
19.04.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paris FC
4-2
AWAY Caen
1.42 xG 1.12
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
533 Passes 330
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paris FC vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC saw off Caen 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Paris FC as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Paris FC had 59% of the ball to Caen's 41%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.42 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paris FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paris FC and 1.00 for Caen.

What was the final score of Paris FC vs Caen?

Paris FC 4-2 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paris FC vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Paris FC 52%, draw 25%, Caen 24%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paris FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paris FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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