Leon 1-2 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.73
No
58%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.7pp
58%
BTTS No
46%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.45/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.38
-10% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
331 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.5 Crosses 17.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.12 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
317 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
15.04.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
01.11.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
10.07.2022 Leon Leon 3-3 HT 0-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
13.02.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-2
AWAY Pumas UNAM
2.07 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
331 Passes 348
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM nicked a narrow win over Leon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leon had 49% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 51%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 2.07 to 1.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Leon.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leon and 2.50 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Leon vs Pumas UNAM?

Leon 1-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leon 46%, draw 24%, Pumas UNAM 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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