Esenler Erokspor 3-1 MKE Ankaragücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.81
No
60%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
16%
4.2
6+ Goals
7%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 37% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.94
1/2
9%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
16%
5.72
X/2
8%
5.79
X/X
12%
4.17
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
17%
4.01
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.5pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.7pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.3pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 38%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -28%
1.50/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.14
+21% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
22.6 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
0W-0D-1L
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.35 xG 1.09
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
317 Passes 349
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.11.2024 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 3-0 HT 0-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
3-1
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
1.44 xG 0.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 Passes 366
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
9 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs MKE Ankaragücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor saw off MKE Ankaragücü 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Esenler Erokspor as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 47% of the ball to MKE Ankaragücü's 53%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 1.44 to 0.95.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Esenler Erokspor 3-1 MKE Ankaragücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esenler Erokspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 41%, draw 24%, MKE Ankaragücü 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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