Kocaelispor 3-1 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.93
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
19.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 33% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.04
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1
18%
3.92
X/2
10%
11.2
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
8%
9.94
2/X
8%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 20%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -7%
1.29/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.62
-27% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
21.0 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 0.74
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 Passes 298
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
11.05.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-2 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
23.12.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
28.05.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 4-0 HT 3-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2P
15.12.2010 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2-K
13.01.2008 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-1 HT 0-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
3-1
AWAY Sakaryaspor
2.47 xG 0.81
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 0
265 Passes 210
71% Pass Accuracy 65%
20 Box Touches 8
7 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor got the better of Sakaryaspor 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 53% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 47%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.47 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.00 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Sakaryaspor?

Kocaelispor 3-1 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 52%, draw 24%, Sakaryaspor 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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