Kocaelispor 0-2 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
19%
4.47
X/2
7%
7.84
X/X
12%
5.03
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
14%
5.59
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.46/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.34
+28% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.1 Crosses 16.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 0.90
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
255 Passes 311
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
28.05.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 4-0 HT 3-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2P
15.12.2010 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2-K
13.01.2008 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-1 HT 0-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
25.08.2007 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 4-1 HT 2-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
30.03.2006 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
0-2
AWAY Sakaryaspor
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
315 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sakaryaspor got the better of Kocaelispor 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kocaelispor at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 51% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 49%, shots finished 11-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sakaryaspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.67 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Sakaryaspor?

Kocaelispor 0-2 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 48%, draw 25%, Sakaryaspor 27%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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