Tuzlaspor 1-1 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 11 May 2024

Tuzlaspor
1-1 HT 0-1
Gençlerbirliği
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Tuzlaspor vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 33% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.52
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
11%
5.33
X/2
12%
5.89
X/X
13%
4.36
2/1
12%
28.5
2/2
12%
4.06
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.3pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tuzlaspor v Gençlerbirliği — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.37/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.23
-7% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
15.7 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Tuzlaspor vs Gençlerbirliği Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tuzlaspor
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
1.25 xG 1.01
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
359 Passes 324
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 0-2 HT 0-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
04.03.2023 Tuzlaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
10.09.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-2 HT 0-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
15.04.2022 Tuzlaspor 4-0 HT 4-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
20.11.2021 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 0-1 HT 0-1 Tuzlaspor T1L

Tuzlaspor 1-1 Gençlerbirliği — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tuzlaspor
1-1
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
2.39 xG 0.68
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
321 Passes 245
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tuzlaspor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuzlaspor and Gençlerbirliği couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Tuzlaspor at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Tuzlaspor had 56% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 44%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 2.39 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Tuzlaspor had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tuzlaspor and 0.20 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Tuzlaspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Tuzlaspor 1-1 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - 1st Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuzlaspor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tuzlaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tuzlaspor 41%, draw 29%, Gençlerbirliği 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tuzlaspor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tuzlaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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