KTP Kotka 2-2 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 31 May 2025

📅31/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.43
6+ Goals
8%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 29% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.94
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
12%
5.02
X/2
11%
7.07
X/X
15%
4.95
2/1
5%
24.65
2/2
18%
4.98
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-8.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+6.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 32%
-40% / -40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.34/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.33
-60% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
19.0 Crosses 23.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
2W-2D-2L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.63 xG 1.35
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
365 Passes 267
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
21.10.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-2 HT 0-2 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
22.04.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.02.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
23.10.2021 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 5-1 HT 4-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
2-2
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.35 xG 1.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
27 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 4
325 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
48 Box Touches 42
31 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka and IFK Mariehamn couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 52% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 48%, shots finished 27-14, expected goals 2.35 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for KTP Kotka and 1.67 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs IFK Mariehamn?

KTP Kotka 2-2 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 31/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 37%, draw 27%, IFK Mariehamn 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (KTP Kotka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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