Botafogo 1-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 31 Jul 2024

Botafogo
1-1 HT 1-1
Bahia
📅31/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2024

Botafogo vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.71
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.31
6+ Goals
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 32% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.2pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.06/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/0.81
-43% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +60%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
19.2 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0

Botafogo vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Bahia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.80 xG 1.76
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
347 Passes 386
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.05.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
27.08.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
25.04.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
09.11.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
01.10.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
26.09.2019 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1

Botafogo 1-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-1
AWAY Bahia
1.70 xG 1.32
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
343 Passes 510
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Bahia shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Botafogo had 42% of the ball to Bahia's 58%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.70 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Bahia?

Botafogo 1-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Cup on 31/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 47%, draw 28%, Bahia 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Botafogo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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