Bahia 3-2 Retro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 31 Jul 2025

Bahia
3-2 HT 2-1
Retro
📅31/07/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2025

Bahia vs Retro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
19%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.19
No
49%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
75%
-13.5pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.8pp
19%
Away Win
9%
+10.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
42%
+9.6pp
49%
BTTS No
58%
-9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Retro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Retro EU Bookmakers 11%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
2.18/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.11
+16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +114%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
18.2 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Bahia 3-2 Retro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
3-2
AWAY Retro
1.92 xG 1.55
75% Ball Possession 25%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
562 Passes 147
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
41 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Retro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia squeezed past Retro 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bahia had 75% of the ball to Retro's 25%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.92 to 1.55.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Retro?

Bahia 3-2 Retro in the Brazil - Cup on 31/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Retro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Bahia 61%, draw 19%, Retro 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BRK More Brazil - Cup
31 Jul 2025
01:00 CSA Alagoano vs Vasco da Gama Analysis →
01:30 Cruzeiro vs CRB Analysis →
03:30 Internacional vs Fluminense Analysis →
03:30 Corinthians vs Palmeiras Analysis →