Hartford Athletic 4-0 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Jul 2025

📅31/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +17%
1.51/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.37
+4% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.3 Crosses 11.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartford Athletic
1W-1D-1L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.01 xG 1.30
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
281 Passes 458
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.06.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-0 HT 0-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
06.08.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-1 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
07.10.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-2 HT 1-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartford Athletic
4-0
AWAY New Mexico United
3.50 xG 1.45
27% Ball Possession 73%
14 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
144 Passes 512
71% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 33
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hartford Athletic vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartford Athletic ran out comfortable winners over New Mexico United 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Hartford Athletic found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hartford Athletic had 27% of the ball to New Mexico United's 73%, shots finished 14-22, expected goals 3.50 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.33 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Hartford Athletic vs New Mexico United?

Hartford Athletic 4-0 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 31/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartford Athletic vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartford Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hartford Athletic 39%, draw 29%, New Mexico United 32%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartford Athletic) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartford Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5
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