Orange County SC 4-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Jul 2025

📅31/07/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.35
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 24% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+6.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 26%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.41/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.68
-15% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
16.3 Crosses 15.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 0.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
303 Passes 485
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.06.2025 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.09.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-0 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
09.06.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
29.10.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
01.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
21.05.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
4-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.64 xG 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 7
287 Passes 368
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 28
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC cruised past Phoenix Rising 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orange County SC as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Orange County SC had 44% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 56%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.64 to 2.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orange County SC and 1.50 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising?

Orange County SC 4-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 31/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 47%, draw 24%, Phoenix Rising 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orange County SC), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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