Phoenix Rising 3-1 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 8 Jun 2025

📅08/06/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.18
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
9%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 31% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.1pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.45/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.40
+24% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
16.3 Crosses 12.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.09
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
464 Passes 332
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-0 HT 2-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
09.06.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
29.10.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
01.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
21.05.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
13.08.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-1 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
3-1
AWAY Orange County SC
0.82 xG 0.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
441 Passes 254
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 27
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising beat Orange County SC 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Phoenix Rising made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 61% of the ball to Orange County SC's 39%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.82 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Phoenix Rising and 1.17 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?

Phoenix Rising 3-1 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 08/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 40%, draw 28%, Orange County SC 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Phoenix Rising) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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