Independiente 1-0 Newells Old Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 31 Jul 2026

Independiente
1-0 HT 1-0
Newells Old Boys
📅31/07/2026 · 🕒03:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2026

Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.61
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.16
6+ Goals
11%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 32% vs market 31.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.96
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.9
X/1
17%
3.74
X/2
10%
11.45
X/X
11%
4.7
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
6%
10.55
2/X
6%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-3.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente v Newells Old Boys — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Newells Old Boys EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.49/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.50
+11% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
400 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 72%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
24.1 Crosses 14.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9

Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newells Old Boys
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.03 xG 0.87
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
270 Passes 269
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2026 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
27.11.2024 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 2-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
12.07.2023 Independiente Independiente 0-2 HT 0-1 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
25.09.2022 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 0-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
01.11.2021 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
06.03.2021 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-2 HT 0-2 Independiente Independiente ARJ

Independiente 1-0 Newells Old Boys — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
1-0
AWAY Newells Old Boys
0.59 xG 0.11
12 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
322 Passes 350
26 Box Touches 7
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente nicked a narrow win over Newells Old Boys 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 12-2, expected goals 0.59 to 0.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newells Old Boys led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Independiente and 1.17 for Newells Old Boys.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Newells Old Boys?

Independiente 1-0 Newells Old Boys in the Argentina - Premier League on 31/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Newells Old Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente 57%, draw 23%, Newells Old Boys 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJ More Argentina - Premier League
31 Jul 2026
01:00 Talleres Cordoba vs Velez Sarsfield Analysis →
01:00 Independiente Rivadavia vs Huracan Analysis →
03:15 Central Cordoba Santiago vs Atletico Tucuman Analysis →