Aarau 1-2 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
13%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
40%
Away Win
34%
+5.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 38%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.04/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.88
-12% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -76% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
297 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
12.5 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.39 xG 1.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
380 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
29.03.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 5-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.10.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
13.08.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
30.04.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.02.2023 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-2
AWAY Bellinzona
0.85 xG 1.55
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
416 Passes 204
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona nicked a narrow win over Aarau 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 23% / 40% — and on the day Bellinzona made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Aarau had 65% of the ball to Bellinzona's 35%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.85 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aarau and 1.67 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Bellinzona?

Aarau 1-2 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aarau 37%, draw 23%, Bellinzona 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bellinzona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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