Hamburg 4-1 Preussen Münster — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.63
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
17%
6.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.81
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.9
X/1
14%
3.98
X/2
7%
12.4
X/X
11%
6.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.65
2/2
10%
8.46
2/X
6%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.65 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
62%
-11.4pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.9pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+6.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.7pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Preussen Münster EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
2.13/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.31/3.15
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -37%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
395 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
22.5 Crosses 23.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
4-1
AWAY Preussen Münster
1.90 xG 1.10
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 10
478 Passes 230
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 30
22 Crosses 34
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Preussen Münster
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg cruised past Preussen Münster 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hamburg had 63% of the ball to Preussen Münster's 37%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.90 to 1.10.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Preussen Münster?

Hamburg 4-1 Preussen Münster in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Preussen Münster?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 51%, draw 25%, Preussen Münster 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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