Uni. Catolica 5-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.1pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.7pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -19%
1.74/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.75
+9% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 73%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
20.2 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uni. Catolica
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.69 xG 1.32
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
327 Passes 223
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.05.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 2-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
26.11.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
10.06.2023 Uni. Catolica 3-2 HT 3-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
19.02.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
23.10.2021 Uni. Catolica 0-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
09.05.2021 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-6 HT 0-4 Uni. Catolica EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
5-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.16 xG 0.74
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
238 Passes 157
71% Pass Accuracy 65%
20 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica ran out comfortable winners over Mushuc Runa 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 58% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 42%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.16 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Uni. Catolica and 1.33 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa?

Uni. Catolica 5-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 55%, draw 24%, Mushuc Runa 21%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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