31/08/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Marupe vs Tukums II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
26%
Draw
26%
27%
Away Win
29%
53%
Under 2.5
46%
47%
Over 2.5
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Marupe v Tukums II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Marupe
EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Tukums II
EU Bookmakers 32%
+42% /
+42%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-34% /
-34%
2.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.72/3.89
+2%
/
+25%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+48%
/
-58%
48%
Ball Possession
52%
12
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
5
284 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
297 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Marupe vs Tukums II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Marupe
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Tukums II
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Marupe vs Tukums II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Marupe edged past Tukums II 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Marupe as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
What was the final score of Marupe vs Tukums II?
Marupe 2-1 Tukums II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Marupe vs Tukums II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Marupe 47%, draw 26%, Tukums II 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Marupe)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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More Latvia - 1st Division
31 Aug 2024