Tijuana 2-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Aug 2024

Tijuana
2-1 HT 1-1
Leon
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.94
6+ Goals
12%
8.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.8pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.56/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.50
-16% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 80%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
24.2 Crosses 13.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Leon
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
304 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
24.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
22.04.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
03.10.2022 Leon Leon 2-2 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
16.01.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
01.08.2021 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
2-1
AWAY Leon
1.63 xG 0.37
73% Ball Possession 27%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
545 Passes 181
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana squeezed past Leon 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Tijuana had 73% of the ball to Leon's 27%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.63 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tijuana's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tijuana and 1.17 for Leon.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Leon?

Tijuana 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 48%, draw 24%, Leon 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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