Tondela 1-1 Felgueiras 1932 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.21
6+ Goals
8%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.3pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 39%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.08/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.04
-9% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 16.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Felgueiras 1932
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
22.11.2020 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 0-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
1-1
AWAY Felgueiras 1932
1.46 xG 1.09
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
223 Passes 131
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Tondela had 43% of the ball to Felgueiras 1932's 57%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.46 to 1.09.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932?

Tondela 1-1 Felgueiras 1932 in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932?

Before kick-off our model rated an Felgueiras 1932 win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Tondela 36%, draw 27%, Felgueiras 1932 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Felgueiras 1932), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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