Ümraniyespor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.12
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
10%
4.94
X/2
12%
6.43
X/X
10%
4.56
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
18%
4.53
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.1
Value flag · 2/X at 13.1 — our 11% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-6.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.46/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.28
+0% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.8 Crosses 19.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.19 xG 1.57
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
18.04.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 HT 2-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor TSL
22.10.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-3 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
21.06.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
23.11.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 HT 1-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
22.03.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 1-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor S2-B
09.11.2014 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük S2-B
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
2-2
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.35 xG 1.11
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
460 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor and Fatih Karagümrük shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 61% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 39%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.35 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ümraniyespor and 2.00 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Ümraniyespor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 36%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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