El Nacional 2-0 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 31 Oct 2024

📅31/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
35%
3.11
Away
25%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.4pp
35%
Draw
29%
+6.1pp
25%
Away Win
33%
-8.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 37%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.50/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+63% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
251 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.68 xG 0.78
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
183 Passes 203
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
26.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
08.10.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
07.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.09.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
17.09.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
2-0
AWAY Mushuc Runa
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional beat Mushuc Runa 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had El Nacional as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, El Nacional had 54% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 46%, shots finished 11-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Nacional and 0.67 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa?

El Nacional 2-0 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Cup on 31/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 41%, draw 35%, Mushuc Runa 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →