Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 31 Dec 2024

Central Coast Mariners
1-1 HT 0-1
Melbourne City
📅31/12/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 28% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.43
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
15%
6.37
X/2
16%
5.15
X/X
10%
4.53
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
20%
3.28
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
44%
Away Win
40%
+3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.60/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.45
-7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 81%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
18.9 Crosses 18.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Melbourne City
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.04 xG 1.81
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
295 Passes 406
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.04.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
21.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
03.06.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-6 HT 1-2 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
15.04.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
27.12.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
1-1
AWAY Melbourne City
0.94 xG 0.54
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
244 Passes 535
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
4 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners and Melbourne City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 34% of the ball to Melbourne City's 66%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 0.94 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.33 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?

Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 31/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 31%, draw 25%, Melbourne City 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Melbourne City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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