Chelmsford City 1-1 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.38
6+ Goals
8%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.54/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.25
+3% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Chesham United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.01.2025 Chesham United Chesham United 2-2 HT 1-1 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelmsford City and Chesham United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chelmsford City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Chesham United?

Chelmsford City 1-1 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 41%, draw 27%, Chesham United 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelmsford City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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