Dynamo Dresden 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.23
Over Pick
61%
1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.59
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.54
2-3
43%
1.93
4-5
29%
2.93
6+
10%
8.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.17
1/2
2%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
17%
4.41
X/2
8%
9.24
X/X
12%
5.98
2/1
4%
20.3
2/2
11%
6.71
2/X
5%
15.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 4% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Dynamo Dresden The Market 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue The Market 26%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.75 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.08
1.00 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.95
Weak Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Weak
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
34 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dynamo Dresden
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
376 Passes 201
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
37 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 HT 2-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
18.02.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 1-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
24.09.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
04.03.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
28.08.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-1 HT 0-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
15.05.2022 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dynamo Dresden
2 - 1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
363 Passes 199
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge Aue
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Dynamo Dresden found just enough to beat Erzgebirge Aue 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dynamo Dresden as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came home.

Under the surface, possession split 60% to 40% in Dynamo Dresden's favour, shots finished 19-13.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Dynamo Dresden against 1.00 for Erzgebirge Aue.

Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge Aue Result & Final Score

Dynamo Dresden 2 - 1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Dynamo Dresden win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Dynamo Dresden 57%, draw 22%, Erzgebirge Aue 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dynamo Dresden), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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