Auckland 2-1 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.72
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 24% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.14
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
19%
4.43
X/2
9%
9.76
X/X
13%
5.57
2/1
5%
21.3
2/2
11%
7.26
2/X
9%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
54%
-13.1pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.7pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+7.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 24%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +26%
0.90/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.98
-35% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
413 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
21.5 Crosses 18.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auckland
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Macarthur
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.36 xG 1.50
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
264 Passes 525
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Auckland Auckland AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
2-1
AWAY Macarthur
3.35 xG 1.44
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
293 Passes 251
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 24
32 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland squeezed past Macarthur 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auckland as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Auckland had 53% of the ball to Macarthur's 47%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 3.35 to 1.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auckland's control.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Macarthur?

Auckland 2-1 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Auckland 41%, draw 30%, Macarthur 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auckland) ✗ Under 2.5
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