Lille 4-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.0
Over 2.5
58%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.17
6+ Goals
13%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
23%
3.96
X/2
6%
11.6
X/X
9%
5.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.1
2/2
9%
9.59
2/X
8%
18.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.93/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.09
-4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
440 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
18.2 Crosses 13.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.24 xG 0.79
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
460 Passes 322
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2024 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
11.03.2022 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
21.08.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
16.05.2021 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
29.11.2020 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
28.08.2019 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
4-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
3.41 xG 2.09
67% Ball Possession 33%
29 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
552 Passes 225
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
44 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lille vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille ran out comfortable winners over Saint-Etienne 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lille had 67% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 33%, shots finished 29-9, expected goals 3.41 to 2.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lille and 0.50 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Lille vs Saint-Etienne?

Lille 4-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lille 57%, draw 23%, Saint-Etienne 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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